Ohio’s third-down conversion rate with Duncan Brune and without Duncan Brune
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio was 1.3 percentage points over with Duncan Brune and 25.3 percentage points over without Duncan Brune in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 45.7% and 56.8%, a difference of 11.1%. All 4 conference games were with Duncan Brune. All 4 second-half games were with Duncan Brune.
Duncan Brune, running back: 463 rushing yards, 91 carries and 5 receptions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Duncan Brune is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Duncan Brune
+1.3%
without Duncan Brune
+25.3%
-20%0%20%
plain
45.7%
56.8%
30%40%50%60%
A −11.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Duncan Brune vs without Duncan Brune is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Duncan Brunewithout Duncan Brune
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 40.0% | 32.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 52.9% | 46.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 63.6% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kent State | W | 40.0% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 64.3% | 46.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 27.3% | 49.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.