Ohio’s passing yards with Matt Vezza and without Matt Vezza
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio was 61.5 yards under with Matt Vezza and 7.8 yards over without Matt Vezza in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 156.3 and 197.6, a difference of 41.3.
Matt Vezza, quarterback: 444 passing yards, 62 pass attempts and 41 completions in 6 games this season, 45% of Ohio’s passing yards in those games.
passing yards a game over expected
with Matt Vezza
−61.5
without Matt Vezza
+7.8
-1000
A −69.4 difference in passing yards over expected with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is about what you’d expect.
plain
156.3
197.6
100150200250
A −41.3 difference in passing yards with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Matt Vezzawithout Matt Vezza
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 164 | 152.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 97 | 164.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 234 | 193.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 222 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kent State | W | 72 | 229.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 158 | 185.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 203 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 266 | 216.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 197 | 199.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.