Ohio’s pass attempts with Matt Vezza and without Matt Vezza
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio was 4.5 pass attempts under with Matt Vezza and 0.8 pass attempts under without Matt Vezza in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 21.3 and 25.3, a difference of 4.0.
Matt Vezza, quarterback: 444 passing yards, 62 pass attempts and 41 completions in 6 games this season, 45% of Ohio’s pass attempts in those games.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Matt Vezza
−4.5
without Matt Vezza
−0.8
-100
A −3.7 difference in pass attempts over expected with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.3
25.3
15202530
A −4.0 difference in pass attempts with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Matt Vezza and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
with Matt Vezzawithout Matt Vezza
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 32 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 31 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 21 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kent State | W | 14 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 18 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 22 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 29 | 26.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.