Ohio’s carries with Matt Vezza and without Matt Vezza
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio was 1.5 carries over with Matt Vezza and 0.2 carries under without Matt Vezza over its last 25 games, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 40.3 and 37.0, a difference of 3.3.
Matt Vezza, quarterback: 444 passing yards, 62 pass attempts and 41 completions in 6 of those 25 games, 15% of Ohio’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Matt Vezza
+1.5
without Matt Vezza
−0.2
-10010
A +1.7 difference in carries over expected with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is about what you’d expect.
plain
40.3
37.0
304050
A +3.3 difference in carries with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Matt Vezzawithout Matt Vezza
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Toledo | W | 54 | 40.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Ball State | W | 40 | 36.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) (neutral) | W | 44 | 36.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Jacksonville State (neutral) | W | 43 | 43.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Rutgers | L | 31 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 47 | 39.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 34 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 36 | 39.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Ball State | L | 36 | 40.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 50 | 42.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 42 | 41.2 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vsMiami (OH) | W | 28 | 39.8 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | 39 | 36.9 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 56 | 43.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Buffalo | W | 54 | 44.8 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs UNLV (neutral) | W | 39 | 37.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 33 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsJacksonville State | W | 46 | 38.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 28 | 35.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 48 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kent State | W | 39 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 50 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 41 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan | W | 24 | 38.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Matt Vezza nor without Matt Vezza: Matt Vezza had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.