Ohio’s carries with Duncan Brune and without Duncan Brune
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio was 2.3 carries over with Duncan Brune and 7.6 carries under without Duncan Brune in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.8 and 38.0, a difference of 0.8. All 4 conference games were with Duncan Brune. All 4 second-half games were with Duncan Brune.
Duncan Brune, running back: 463 rushing yards, 91 carries and 5 receptions in 7 games this season, 39% of Ohio’s carries in those games.
2 games without Duncan Brune is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Duncan Brune
+2.3
without Duncan Brune
−7.6
-10010
plain
38.8
38.0
304050
A +0.8 difference in carries with Duncan Brune vs without Duncan Brune is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Duncan Brunewithout Duncan Brune
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 33 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 46 | 38.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 28 | 35.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 48 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kent State | W | 39 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 50 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 41 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 24 | 38.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.