Ohio’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio was 1.8 points over at home and 1.5 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 29.8 and 29.2, a difference of 0.6.
points a game over expected
at home
+1.8
away
−1.5
-100
A +3.3 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
29.8
29.2
203040
A +0.6 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 21 | 14.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 29 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 36 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 35 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kent State | W | 13 | 29.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 31 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 48 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 24 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 28 | 31.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.