Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate with Luke Fahey and without Luke Fahey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 3.8 percentage points over with Luke Fahey and 1.9 percentage points over without Luke Fahey over its last 25 games, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 43.8% and 42.8%, a difference of 1.0%. All 4 home games were without Luke Fahey. All 3 ranked opponents were without Luke Fahey. Both top-10 opponents were without Luke Fahey.
Luke Fahey, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 51 pass attempts and 30 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
One game with Luke Fahey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Luke Fahey
+3.8%
without Luke Fahey
+1.9%
-20%0%20%
plain
43.8%
42.8%
20%40%60%
The games
with Luke Faheywithout Luke Fahey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Oregon (neutral) | W | 36.4% | 37.9% | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 30.0% | 37.3% | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | W | 75.0% | 35.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 25.0% | 46.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Grambling State | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 55.6% | 48.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 60.0% | 45.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 70.0% | 48.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Illinois | W | 53.3% | 49.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 45.5% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 66.7% | 47.0% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 69.2% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 54.5% | 54.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 50.0% | 47.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Michigan | W | 64.7% | 44.0% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 42.1% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 30.0% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 45.5% | 45.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Texas | L | 42.9% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 12.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIllinois | W | 66.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 53.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 38.5% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Indiana | W | 40.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 43.8% | 39.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Fahey nor without Luke Fahey: Luke Fahey had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.