Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate with Luke Fahey and without Luke Fahey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 3.8 percentage points over with Luke Fahey and 1.9 percentage points over without Luke Fahey in 2026, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 43.8% and 42.8%, a difference of 1.0%. All 4 home games were without Luke Fahey. All 3 ranked opponents were without Luke Fahey. Both top-10 opponents were without Luke Fahey.
Luke Fahey, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 51 pass attempts and 30 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Luke Fahey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Luke Fahey
+3.8%
without Luke Fahey
+1.9%
-20%0%20%
plain
43.8%
42.8%
20%40%60%
The games
with Luke Faheywithout Luke Fahey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 45.5% | 45.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 42.9% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 12.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 66.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 53.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 38.5% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Indiana | W | 40.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 43.8% | 39.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.