Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate with Julian Sayin and without Julian Sayin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 4.4 percentage points over with Julian Sayin and 8.7 percentage points over without Julian Sayin over its last 25 games, 20 games against 4. The plain averages are 49.9% and 46.3%, a difference of 3.7%. Expected was 6.9 percentage points higher with Julian Sayin than without Julian Sayin. All 11 home games were with Julian Sayin. All 16 games on a normal week were with Julian Sayin.
Julian Sayin, quarterback: 5,617 passing yards, 583 pass attempts and 432 completions in 21 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −4.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Julian Sayin vs without Julian Sayin is about what you’d expect.
A +3.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Julian Sayin vs without Julian Sayin is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Oregon (neutral) | W | 36.4% | 37.9% | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 30.0% | 37.3% | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | W | 75.0% | 35.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 25.0% | 46.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Grambling State | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 55.6% | 48.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 60.0% | 45.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 70.0% | 48.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Illinois | W | 53.3% | 49.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 45.5% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 66.7% | 47.0% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 69.2% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 54.5% | 54.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 50.0% | 47.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Michigan | W | 64.7% | 44.0% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 42.1% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 30.0% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 45.5% | 45.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Texas | L | 42.9% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 12.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIllinois | W | 66.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 53.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 38.5% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Indiana | W | 40.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 43.8% | 39.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Grambling State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.