Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate with Ja'Kobi Jackson and since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 1.5 percentage points over with Ja'Kobi Jackson and 4.2 percentage points over since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 43.2% and 41.9%, a difference of 1.3%. Expected was 4.1 percentage points higher with Ja'Kobi Jackson than since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game. All 4 home games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson. All 3 nonconference games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson.
Ja'Kobi Jackson, running back: 354 rushing yards, 59 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ja'Kobi Jackson vs since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ja'Kobi Jackson vs since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Oregon (neutral) | W | 36.4% | 37.9% | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 30.0% | 37.3% | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | W | 75.0% | 35.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 25.0% | 46.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Grambling State | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 55.6% | 48.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 60.0% | 45.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 70.0% | 48.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Illinois | W | 53.3% | 49.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 45.5% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 66.7% | 47.0% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 69.2% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 54.5% | 54.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 50.0% | 47.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Michigan | W | 64.7% | 44.0% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 42.1% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 30.0% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 45.5% | 45.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Texas | L | 42.9% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 12.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIllinois | W | 66.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 53.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 38.5% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Indiana | W | 40.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 43.8% | 39.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ja'Kobi Jackson nor since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game: Ja'Kobi Jackson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.