Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate with Ja'Kobi Jackson and since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 1.5 percentage points over with Ja'Kobi Jackson and 4.2 percentage points over since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 43.2% and 41.9%, a difference of 1.3%. Expected was 4.1 percentage points higher with Ja'Kobi Jackson than since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game. All 4 home games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson. All 3 nonconference games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson. All 4 first-half games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson.
Ja'Kobi Jackson, running back: 354 rushing yards, 59 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ja'Kobi Jackson vs since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ja'Kobi Jackson vs since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 45.5% | 45.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 42.9% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 12.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 66.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 53.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 38.5% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Indiana | W | 40.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 43.8% | 39.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.