Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate with Devin McCuin and without Devin McCuin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 3.0 percentage points over with Devin McCuin and 3.5 percentage points under without Devin McCuin in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.5% and 38.5%, a difference of 5.0%. All 4 away games were with Devin McCuin. All 3 ranked opponents were with Devin McCuin. Both top-10 opponents were with Devin McCuin.
Devin McCuin, receiver: 285 receiving yards, 20 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Devin McCuin is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Devin McCuin
+3.0%
without Devin McCuin
−3.5%
-20%0%20%
plain
43.5%
38.5%
20%40%60%
The games
with Devin McCuinwithout Devin McCuin
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 45.5% | 45.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 42.9% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 12.5% | 49.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 66.7% | 42.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 53.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 38.5% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Indiana | W | 40.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 43.8% | 39.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.