Putting Up Numbers· college football

Ohio State’s rushing yards with Julian Sayin and since Julian Sayin’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 4.2 yards under with Julian Sayin and 51.7 yards over since Julian Sayin’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 154.1 and 204.0, a difference of 49.9. All 4 home games were with Julian Sayin. All 3 ranked opponents were with Julian Sayin. Both top-10 opponents were with Julian Sayin.

Julian Sayin, quarterback: 2,007 passing yards, 192 pass attempts and 131 completions in 7 games this season.

One game since Julian Sayin’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

rushing yards a game over expected

The games

with Julian Sayinsince Julian Sayin’s last game
Ohio State’s games, 2026, each marked with Julian Sayin or since Julian Sayin’s last game
SideDateGameResultrushing yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsBall StateW237201.6
Sep 12, 2026@TexasL94107.5
Sep 19, 2026vsKent StateW145187.3
Sep 26, 2026vsIllinoisW153191.8
Oct 3, 2026@IowaW162117.7
Oct 10, 2026vsMarylandW207179.8
Oct 17, 2026@IndianaW81122.7
Oct 31, 2026@USCL204152.3

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.