Ohio State’s points with Luke Fahey and without Luke Fahey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 17.5 points under with Luke Fahey and 6.7 points over without Luke Fahey over its last 25 games, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 18.0 and 39.3, a difference of 21.3. All 4 home games were without Luke Fahey. All 3 ranked opponents were without Luke Fahey. Both top-10 opponents were without Luke Fahey.
Luke Fahey, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 51 pass attempts and 30 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
One game with Luke Fahey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Luke Fahey
−17.5
without Luke Fahey
+6.7
-10010
plain
18.0
39.3
2040
The games
with Luke Faheywithout Luke Fahey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Oregon (neutral) | W | 41 | 29.1 | |
| Jan 10, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 28 | 25.7 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | W | 34 | 26.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 14 | 31.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Grambling State | W | 70 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 37 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 24 | 26.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 42 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Illinois | W | 34 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 34 | 24.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 38 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 34 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 48 | 34.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Rutgers | W | 42 | 38.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Michigan | W | 27 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 10 | 21.4 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 14 | 22.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 56 | 44.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Texas | L | 23 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 59 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsIllinois | W | 42 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 31 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 45 | 40.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Indiana | W | 19 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 18 | 35.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Fahey nor without Luke Fahey: Luke Fahey had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.