Ohio State’s points of margin with Luke Fahey and without Luke Fahey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 23.2 points under with Luke Fahey and 8.6 points over without Luke Fahey in 2026, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are -12.0 and 25.9, a difference of 37.9. All 4 home games were without Luke Fahey. All 3 ranked opponents were without Luke Fahey. Both top-10 opponents were without Luke Fahey.
Luke Fahey, quarterback: 463 passing yards, 51 pass attempts and 30 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Luke Fahey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Luke Fahey
−23.2
without Luke Fahey
+8.6
-200
plain
-12.0
25.9
02040
The games
with Luke Faheywithout Luke Fahey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 53 | 38.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas | L | -1 | -6.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 56 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 23 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 17 | 1.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 29 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Indiana | W | 4 | 0.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | -12 | 11.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.