Ohio State’s carries with Ja'Kobi Jackson and since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 0.5 carries over with Ja'Kobi Jackson and 3.2 carries over since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 38.0 and 39.0, a difference of 1.0. Expected was 1.7 carries higher with Ja'Kobi Jackson than since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game. All 4 home games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson. All 3 nonconference games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson. All 4 first-half games were with Ja'Kobi Jackson.
Ja'Kobi Jackson, running back: 354 rushing yards, 59 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season, 26% of Ohio State’s carries in those games.
2 games since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.7 difference in carries over expected with Ja'Kobi Jackson vs since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −1.0 difference in carries with Ja'Kobi Jackson vs since Ja'Kobi Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 35 | 40.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 31 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 38 | 37.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 30 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 46 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 48 | 37.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Indiana | W | 35 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 43 | 35.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.