Ohio State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio State was 10.9 points over at home and 3.6 points under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 50.5 and 22.8, a difference of 27.8. All 3 ranked opponents were away. Both top-10 opponents were away.
Ohio State’s +14.5 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 11 teams with 4 games on each side this season.
points a game over expected
at home
+10.9
away
−3.6
-10010
A +14.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
plain
50.5
22.8
2040
A +27.8 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 56 | 44.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 23 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 59 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Illinois | W | 42 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Iowa | W | 31 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 45 | 40.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Indiana | W | 19 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ USC | L | 18 | 35.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.