Notre Dame’s points with Leonard Moore and without Leonard Moore
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Notre Dame was 2.1 points over with Leonard Moore and 10.7 points over without Leonard Moore over its last 25 games, 21 games against 4. The plain averages are 36.7 and 51.3, a difference of 14.5. All 10 night games were with Leonard Moore. All 9 ranked opponents were with Leonard Moore. All 6 top-10 opponents were with Leonard Moore.
Leonard Moore, defender: 20 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
A −8.6 difference in points over expected with Leonard Moore vs without Leonard Moore is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Leonard Moore and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A −14.5 difference in points with Leonard Moore vs without Leonard Moore is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Leonard Moore and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ USC | W | 49 | 29.4 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Indiana | W | 27 | 32.0 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | W | 23 | 30.0 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Penn State (neutral) | W | 27 | 27.4 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 23 | 24.2 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 24 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 40 | 34.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 56 | 39.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 56 | 40.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 28 | 41.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 36 | 40.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsUSC | W | 34 | 36.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 25 | 47.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Navy | W | 49 | 40.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 37 | 37.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 70 | 41.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 49 | 37.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Wisconsin (neutral) | W | 41 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 52 | 43.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 27 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 49 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 37 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsStanford | W | 58 | 42.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ BYU | L | 24 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNavy (neutral) | W | 35 | 39.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 12 of these 25 games; in the other 13 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.