Notre Dame’s points of margin with Leonard Moore and without Leonard Moore
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Notre Dame was 3.1 points over with Leonard Moore and 8.0 points over without Leonard Moore over its last 25 games, 21 games against 4. The plain averages are 18.9 and 35.5, a difference of 16.6. All 10 night games were with Leonard Moore. All 9 ranked opponents were with Leonard Moore. All 6 top-10 opponents were with Leonard Moore.
Leonard Moore, defender: 20 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Leonard Moore
+3.1
without Leonard Moore
+8.0
020
A −4.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Leonard Moore vs without Leonard Moore is about what you’d expect.
plain
18.9
35.5
0204060
A −16.6 difference in points of margin with Leonard Moore vs without Leonard Moore is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Leonard Moorewithout Leonard Moore
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ USC | W | 14 | 6.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Indiana | W | 10 | 4.5 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | W | 13 | 4.1 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Penn State (neutral) | W | 3 | 4.1 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | -11 | -2.5 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | -3 | 0.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | -1 | 13.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 26 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 43 | 13.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 21 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 29 | 20.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsUSC | W | 10 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 15 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Navy | W | 39 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 22 | 13.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 63 | 35.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 29 | 26.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Wisconsin (neutral) | W | 28 | 8.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 52 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 17 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Purdue | W | 39 | 9.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsStanford | W | 51 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ BYU | L | -4 | 13.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNavy (neutral) | W | 22 | 29.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 12 of these 25 games; in the other 13 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.