Notre Dame’s points of margin with Leonard Moore and without Leonard Moore
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Notre Dame was 6.2 points over with Leonard Moore and 4.3 points over without Leonard Moore in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 23.8 and 36.5, a difference of 12.7. Expected was 14.5 points lower with Leonard Moore than without Leonard Moore. All 3 away games were with Leonard Moore. Both night games were with Leonard Moore. All 4 first-half games were with Leonard Moore.
Leonard Moore, defender: 5 games this season.
2 games without Leonard Moore is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Leonard Moore vs without Leonard Moore is about what you’d expect.
A −12.7 difference in points of margin with Leonard Moore vs without Leonard Moore is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Wisconsin (neutral) | W | 28 | 8.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 52 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Michigan State | W | 17 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Purdue | W | 39 | 9.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 51 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ BYU | L | -4 | 13.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Navy (neutral) | W | 22 | 29.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.