Northern Illinois’ third-down conversion rate with Brady Davidson and without Brady Davidson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Northern Illinois was 12.0 percentage points under with Brady Davidson and 1.0 percentage points under without Brady Davidson over its last 25 games, 5 games against 13. The plain averages are 25.2% and 33.6%, a difference of 8.5%. All 5 night games were without Brady Davidson. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Brady Davidson. All 8 nonconference games were without Brady Davidson.
Brady Davidson, quarterback: 411 passing yards, 93 pass attempts and 44 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −11.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Brady Davidson vs without Brady Davidson is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brady Davidson and it comes up 19 times in 100.
A −8.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Brady Davidson vs without Brady Davidson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | @ Western Michigan | W | 60.0% | 42.5% | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | vs Akron | W | 16.7% | 43.7% | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 55.6% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Central Michigan | W | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs Fresno State (neutral) | W | 25.0% | 38.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Holy Cross | W | 29.4% | — | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | @ Maryland | L | 35.0% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | L | 11.1% | 33.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 26.7% | 28.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsMiami (OH) | L | 28.6% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | 25.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 46.2% | 28.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 56.3% | 34.4% | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 12.5% | 32.0% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 45.5% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 14.3% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Kent State | L | 50.0% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | 20.0% | 33.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Illinois State | L | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arizona | L | 37.5% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | 23.1% | 31.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | 33.3% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 28.6% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Hawaii | L | 14.3% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UNLV | L | 52.9% | 33.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Holy Cross, Illinois State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 19 of these 20 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Brady Davidson nor without Brady Davidson: Brady Davidson had no game for the team that season, and sit out.