Northern Illinois’ points of margin with Brady Davidson and without Brady Davidson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Northern Illinois was 1.1 points under with Brady Davidson and 3.1 points under without Brady Davidson over its last 25 games, 5 games against 13. The plain averages are -6.0 and -15.2, a difference of 9.2. Expected was 9.4 points higher with Brady Davidson than without Brady Davidson. All 5 night games were without Brady Davidson. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Brady Davidson. All 8 nonconference games were without Brady Davidson.
Brady Davidson, quarterback: 411 passing yards, 93 pass attempts and 44 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Brady Davidson vs without Brady Davidson is about what you’d expect.
A +9.2 difference in points of margin with Brady Davidson vs without Brady Davidson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | @ Western Michigan | W | 14 | 2.1 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | vs Akron | W | 13 | 12.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | @ Miami (OH) | L | -11 | -3.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Central Michigan | W | 8 | 18.4 | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs Fresno State (neutral) | W | 8 | 1.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Holy Cross | W | 2 | — | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | @ Maryland | L | -11 | -19.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | L | -28 | -18.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | -3 | -17.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsMiami (OH) | L | -11 | -4.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | -6 | -3.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | -27 | -12.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 14 | 6.7 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | -39 | -19.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 42 | 10.9 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan | L | -16 | -9.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Kent State | L | -4 | 8.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | -40 | -34.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Illinois State | L | -4 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Arizona | L | -25 | -40.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | -21 | -16.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | -21 | -11.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | -18 | -13.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Hawaii | L | -35 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UNLV | L | -7 | -18.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Holy Cross, Illinois State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 19 of these 20 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Brady Davidson nor without Brady Davidson: Brady Davidson had no game for the team that season, and sit out.