North Texas’ third-down conversion rate with Brendon Haygood and without Brendon Haygood
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Texas was 7.0 percentage points over with Brendon Haygood and 3.3 percentage points under without Brendon Haygood over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 49.4% and 52.3%, a difference of 2.9%. Expected was 3.0 percentage points lower with Brendon Haygood than without Brendon Haygood. All 5 day games were with Brendon Haygood.
Brendon Haygood, running back: 171 rushing yards, 41 carries and 1 reception in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Brendon Haygood is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Brendon Haygood vs without Brendon Haygood is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs East Carolina | L | 43.8% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Temple | W | 36.8% | 37.5% | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 58.3% | 39.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Lamar | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | W | 46.2% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 50.0% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Army | W | 58.3% | 42.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 30.8% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | 50.0% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 35.7% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 36.4% | 45.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Navy | W | 53.8% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 60.0% | 44.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 16.7% | 46.1% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsTemple | W | 66.7% | 40.5% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 33.3% | 43.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs San Diego State (neutral) | W | 45.0% | 38.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 40.0% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 53.8% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Texas State | L | 66.7% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 42.1% | 45.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCharlotte | W | 35.7% | 46.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Navy | W | 42.9% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 57.1% | 46.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Brendon Haygood nor without Brendon Haygood: Brendon Haygood had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.