North Texas’ third-down conversion rate with Brendon Haygood and without Brendon Haygood
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Texas was 7.0 percentage points over with Brendon Haygood and 3.3 percentage points under without Brendon Haygood in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 49.4% and 52.3%, a difference of 2.9%. Expected was 3.0 percentage points lower with Brendon Haygood than without Brendon Haygood. All 5 day games were with Brendon Haygood.
Brendon Haygood, running back: 171 rushing yards, 41 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
2 games without Brendon Haygood is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Brendon Haygood vs without Brendon Haygood is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 40.0% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 53.8% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 66.7% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 42.1% | 45.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 35.7% | 46.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Navy | W | 42.9% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 57.1% | 46.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.