North Texas’ carries with Brendon Haygood and without Brendon Haygood
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Texas was 1.3 carries under with Brendon Haygood and 6.1 carries over without Brendon Haygood over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.8 and 39.0, a difference of 6.2. All 5 day games were with Brendon Haygood.
Brendon Haygood, running back: 171 rushing yards, 41 carries and 1 reception in 6 of those 25 games, 21% of North Texas’s carries in those games.
2 games without Brendon Haygood is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Brendon Haygood
−1.3
without Brendon Haygood
+6.1
-505
plain
32.8
39.0
303540
A −6.2 difference in carries with Brendon Haygood vs without Brendon Haygood is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Brendon Haygoodwithout Brendon Haygood
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs East Carolina | L | 36 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Temple | W | 37 | 32.0 | |
| Jan 3, 2025 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 24 | 32.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Lamar | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | W | 30 | 36.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 29 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Army | W | 41 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 36 | 37.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | 29 | 39.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs UTSA | W | 42 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 29 | 40.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Navy | W | 42 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 34 | 38.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 32 | 36.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsTemple | W | 38 | 38.7 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 34 | 33.6 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs San Diego State (neutral) | W | 49 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 38 | 32.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 37 | 34.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Texas State | L | 30 | 33.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 34 | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 44 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCharlotte | W | 31 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Navy | W | 27 | 32.3 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 34 | 35.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Brendon Haygood nor without Brendon Haygood: Brendon Haygood had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.