North Texas’ points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Texas was 5.4 points over at home and 4.9 points over away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 51.3 and 36.3, a difference of 15.0.
points a game over expected
at home
+5.4
away
+4.9
010
A +0.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
51.3
36.3
204060
A +15.0 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 16 | 24.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UNLV | W | 44 | 36.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 35 | 38.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 63 | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | @ Tulsa | W | 45 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 50 | 43.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Navy | W | 49 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 48 | 45.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.