New Mexico’s third-down conversion rate with Toa Fa'avae and without Toa Fa'avae
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico was 0.4 percentage points under with Toa Fa'avae and 0.4 percentage points over without Toa Fa'avae over its last 25 games, 5 games against 13. The plain averages are 35.9% and 40.2%, a difference of 4.3%.
Toa Fa'avae, quarterback: 888 passing yards, 101 pass attempts and 58 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Toa Fa'avae
−0.4%
without Toa Fa'avae
+0.4%
-20%0%20%
A −0.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Toa Fa'avae vs without Toa Fa'avae is about what you’d expect.
plain
35.9%
40.2%
20%40%60%
A −4.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Toa Fa'avae vs without Toa Fa'avae is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Toa Fa'avaewithout Toa Fa'avae
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Wyoming | L | 40.0% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ San Diego State | W | 45.5% | 48.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Washington State | W | 42.9% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 36.4% | 43.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 35.7% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 40.0% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ San Jose State | L | 60.0% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | 30.8% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 38.5% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 33.3% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ UNLV | W | 27.3% | 34.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 35.7% | 44.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 58.3% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsSan Diego State | W | 9.1% | 38.4% | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | L | 44.4% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 53.8% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 21.4% | 31.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @New Mexico State | W | 41.7% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 58.3% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 38.5% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 23.1% | — | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @San Jose State | W | 30.0% | 38.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Idaho State, Mercyhurst, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 14 of these 21 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Toa Fa'avae nor without Toa Fa'avae: Toa Fa'avae had no game for the team that season, and sit out.