New Mexico’s third-down conversion rate with Toa Fa'avae and without Toa Fa'avae
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico was 0.4 percentage points under with Toa Fa'avae and 7.3 percentage points over without Toa Fa'avae in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.9% and 53.8%, a difference of 17.9%. All 4 away games were with Toa Fa'avae. All 5 day games were with Toa Fa'avae. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Toa Fa'avae.
Toa Fa'avae, quarterback: 888 passing yards, 101 pass attempts and 58 completions in 8 games this season.
One game without Toa Fa'avae is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Toa Fa'avae
−0.4%
without Toa Fa'avae
+7.3%
-10%0%10%
plain
35.9%
53.8%
30%40%50%
The games
with Toa Fa'avaewithout Toa Fa'avae
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 53.8% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 21.4% | 31.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 41.7% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 58.3% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 38.5% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 23.1% | — | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ San Jose State | W | 30.0% | 38.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Mercyhurst, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.