New Mexico’s third-down conversion rate with Luke Moga and since Luke Moga’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico was 7.3 percentage points over with Luke Moga and 0.4 percentage points under since Luke Moga’s last game over its last 25 games, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 46.2% and 35.5%, a difference of 10.7%. All 4 away games were since Luke Moga’s last game. All 4 conference games were since Luke Moga’s last game.
Luke Moga, quarterback: 248 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 23 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
2 games with Luke Moga is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Luke Moga
+7.3%
since Luke Moga’s last game
−0.4%
-10%0%10%
plain
46.2%
35.5%
30%40%50%
A +10.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Luke Moga vs since Luke Moga’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Luke Mogasince Luke Moga’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Wyoming | L | 40.0% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ San Diego State | W | 45.5% | 48.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Washington State | W | 42.9% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 36.4% | 43.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 35.7% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 40.0% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 50.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ San Jose State | L | 60.0% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | 30.8% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 38.5% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 33.3% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ UNLV | W | 27.3% | 34.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 35.7% | 44.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 58.3% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsSan Diego State | W | 9.1% | 38.4% | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | L | 44.4% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 53.8% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 21.4% | 31.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @New Mexico State | W | 41.7% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 58.3% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 38.5% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 23.1% | — | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @San Jose State | W | 30.0% | 38.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Mercyhurst, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Moga nor since Luke Moga’s last game: Luke Moga had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.