New Mexico’s points with Toa Fa'avae and without Toa Fa'avae
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico was 1.1 points over with Toa Fa'avae and 6.1 points over without Toa Fa'avae in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.6 and 38.0, a difference of 3.4. All 4 away games were with Toa Fa'avae. All 5 day games were with Toa Fa'avae. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Toa Fa'avae.
Toa Fa'avae, quarterback: 888 passing yards, 101 pass attempts and 58 completions in 8 games this season.
One game without Toa Fa'avae is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Toa Fa'avae
+1.1
without Toa Fa'avae
+6.1
020
plain
34.6
38.0
204060
The games
with Toa Fa'avaewithout Toa Fa'avae
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 38 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 70 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 6 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 42 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 61 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 21 | 32.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 21 | — | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ San Jose State | W | 21 | 28.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Mercyhurst, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.