New Mexico’s carries with Toa Fa'avae and without Toa Fa'avae
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico was 3.1 carries over with Toa Fa'avae and 0.2 carries over without Toa Fa'avae over its last 25 games, 5 games against 13. The plain averages are 43.6 and 35.9, a difference of 7.6.
Toa Fa'avae, quarterback: 888 passing yards, 101 pass attempts and 58 completions in 9 of those 25 games, 20% of New Mexico’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Toa Fa'avae
+3.1
without Toa Fa'avae
+0.2
-10010
A +2.9 difference in carries over expected with Toa Fa'avae vs without Toa Fa'avae is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.6
35.9
304050
A +7.6 difference in carries with Toa Fa'avae vs without Toa Fa'avae is unusual: shuffle which games were with Toa Fa'avae and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
with Toa Fa'avaewithout Toa Fa'avae
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Wyoming | L | 29 | 36.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ San Diego State | W | 34 | 41.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Washington State | W | 49 | 33.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 49 | 35.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 27 | 34.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Idaho State | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 46 | 33.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 37 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ San Jose State | L | 27 | 38.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | 23 | 33.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 39 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Utah State | W | 41 | 35.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ UNLV | W | 29 | 34.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 39 | 38.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 40 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsSan Diego State | W | 35 | 37.3 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | L | 38 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 44 | 41.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 38 | 35.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @New Mexico State | W | 47 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 42 | 41.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 43 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 41 | — | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @San Jose State | W | 42 | 42.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Idaho State, Mercyhurst, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 14 of these 21 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Toa Fa'avae nor without Toa Fa'avae: Toa Fa'avae had no game for the team that season, and sit out.