New Mexico’s carries with Luke Moga and since Luke Moga’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico was 2.6 carries over with Luke Moga and 3.1 carries over since Luke Moga’s last game in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 48.0 and 42.2, a difference of 5.8. All 4 away games were since Luke Moga’s last game. All 4 conference games were since Luke Moga’s last game. All 4 second-half games were since Luke Moga’s last game.
Luke Moga, quarterback: 248 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 23 completions in 4 games this season, 3% of New Mexico’s carries in those games.
2 games with Luke Moga is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +5.8 difference in carries with Luke Moga vs since Luke Moga’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Luke Moga and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 44 | 41.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 38 | 35.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 47 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 42 | 41.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 43 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota State | W | 41 | — | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ San Jose State | W | 42 | 42.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Mercyhurst, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.