Nevada’s third-down conversion rate with Carter Jones and without Carter Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 3.1 percentage points under with Carter Jones and 5.4 percentage points over without Carter Jones in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 38.1% and 38.7%, a difference of 0.6%. Expected was 5.9 percentage points higher with Carter Jones than without Carter Jones. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Carter Jones.
Carter Jones, quarterback: 654 passing yards, 89 pass attempts and 53 completions in 4 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −8.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Carter Jones vs without Carter Jones is about what you’d expect.
A −0.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Carter Jones vs without Carter Jones is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 50.0% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 30.8% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 38.5% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | 33.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 30.8% | 47.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 42.9% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 50.0% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 31.3% | 32.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.