Nevada’s points with AJ Bianco and without AJ Bianco
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 16.8 points under with AJ Bianco and 3.5 points over without AJ Bianco in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 8.0 and 32.0, a difference of 24.0. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with AJ Bianco.
AJ Bianco, quarterback: 397 passing yards, 71 pass attempts and 37 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games with AJ Bianco is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with AJ Bianco
−16.8
without AJ Bianco
+3.5
-1001020
plain
8.0
32.0
02040
A −24.0 difference in points with AJ Bianco vs without AJ Bianco is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with AJ Bianco and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
with AJ Biancowithout AJ Bianco
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 49 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 7 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 20 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | 33 | 23.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 30 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 17 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 28 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 0 | 16.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.