Nevada’s points of margin with Carter Jones and without Carter Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 3.3 points over with Carter Jones and 7.7 points under without Carter Jones over its last 25 games, 11 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.7 and -13.8, a difference of 14.5. Both ranked opponents were without Carter Jones. Both top-10 opponents were without Carter Jones. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were without Carter Jones.
Carter Jones, quarterback: 1,673 passing yards, 260 pass attempts and 163 completions in 13 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +11.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Carter Jones vs without Carter Jones is about what you’d expect.
A +14.5 difference in points of margin with Carter Jones vs without Carter Jones is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Carter Jones and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | -21 | 4.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Colorado State | L | -17 | 4.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | -7 | -23.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | -3 | 4.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | -24 | -18.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | -35 | -29.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSacramento State | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | -1 | 9.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | -15 | -6.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | -3 | -14.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | -34 | -9.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | -2 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsBoise State | L | -21 | -12.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | -37 | -9.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 45 | -3.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 6 | -6.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUNLV | L | -25 | -6.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 35 | 8.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | -13 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | -7 | 11.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsAir Force | L | -3 | 4.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 17 | 17.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | -14 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Jose State | W | 15 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | -27 | -22.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacramento State, Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Carter Jones nor without Carter Jones: Carter Jones had no game for the team that season, and sit out.