Nevada’s points allowed with AJ Bianco and without AJ Bianco
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 1.5 points under with AJ Bianco and 1.2 points over without AJ Bianco over its last 25 games, 3 games against 19. The plain averages are 25.2 and 27.3, a difference of 2.1. All 4 games after a bye were without AJ Bianco.
AJ Bianco, quarterback: 716 passing yards, 137 pass attempts and 77 completions in 14 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with AJ Bianco
−1.5
without AJ Bianco
+1.2
-1001020
A −2.7 difference in points allowed over expected with AJ Bianco vs without AJ Bianco is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.2
27.3
2040
A −2.1 difference in points allowed with AJ Bianco vs without AJ Bianco is about what you’d expect.
The games
with AJ Biancowithout AJ Bianco
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 34 | 21.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Colorado State | L | 38 | 21.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 28 | 39.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 22 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 38 | 34.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 46 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSacramento State | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 14 | 22.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 31 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 44 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 24 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsBoise State | L | 24 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 51 | 29.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 10 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 7 | 21.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUNLV | L | 42 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 14 | 20.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 20 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | 27 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsAir Force | L | 36 | 19.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 13 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 31 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Jose State | W | 13 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 27 | 35.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacramento State, Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.