Nevada’s carries with Carter Jones and without Carter Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 3.4 carries over with Carter Jones and 2.4 carries under without Carter Jones in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 39.5 and 32.5, a difference of 7.0. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Carter Jones.
Carter Jones, quarterback: 654 passing yards, 89 pass attempts and 53 completions in 4 games this season, 18% of Nevada’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Carter Jones
+3.4
without Carter Jones
−2.4
-50510
A +5.8 difference in carries over expected with Carter Jones vs without Carter Jones is about what you’d expect.
plain
39.5
32.5
3040
A +7.0 difference in carries with Carter Jones vs without Carter Jones is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Carter Joneswithout Carter Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 40 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 35 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 34 | 39.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | 35 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 49 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 21 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 39 | 42.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 35 | 36.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.