Nebraska’s third-down conversion rate with TJ Lateef and without TJ Lateef
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nebraska was 7.9 percentage points over with TJ Lateef and 3.6 percentage points over without TJ Lateef over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 49.0% and 47.9%, a difference of 1.1%. Expected was 2.8 percentage points lower with TJ Lateef than without TJ Lateef. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without TJ Lateef.
TJ Lateef, quarterback: 986 passing yards, 134 pass attempts and 82 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with TJ Lateef
+7.9%
without TJ Lateef
+3.6%
-20%0%20%
A +4.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with TJ Lateef vs without TJ Lateef is about what you’d expect.
plain
49.0%
47.9%
20%40%60%80%
A +1.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with TJ Lateef vs without TJ Lateef is about what you’d expect.
The games
with TJ Lateefwithout TJ Lateef
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ USC | L | 38.5% | 32.8% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Wisconsin | W | 44.4% | 39.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Iowa | L | 47.1% | 36.7% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Boston College (neutral) | W | 27.3% | 40.0% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Cincinnati (neutral) | W | 55.6% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 80.0% | 41.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 16.7% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 38.5% | 42.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 42.9% | 46.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 27.3% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 50.0% | 43.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsUSC | L | 41.7% | 42.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 62.5% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 50.0% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsIowa | L | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Utah (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 64.3% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 62.5% | 47.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 46.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 46.2% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMaryland | W | 46.2% | 47.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 52.6% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 41.2% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington | L | 46.2% | 42.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Houston Christian, North Dakota have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 13 of these 21 games; in the other 8 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with TJ Lateef nor without TJ Lateef: TJ Lateef had no game for the team that season, and sit out.