Nebraska’s third-down conversion rate with Jamal Rule and without Jamal Rule
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nebraska was 8.6 percentage points over with Jamal Rule and 1.0 percentage points under without Jamal Rule over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 51.4% and 46.2%, a difference of 5.2%. Both away games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 night games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 nonconference games were with Jamal Rule.
Jamal Rule, running back: 463 rushing yards, 73 carries and 4 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Jamal Rule is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jamal Rule
+8.6%
without Jamal Rule
−1.0%
0%5%10%15%
plain
51.4%
46.2%
50%60%
The games
with Jamal Rulewithout Jamal Rule
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ USC | L | 38.5% | 32.8% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Wisconsin | W | 44.4% | 39.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Iowa | L | 47.1% | 36.7% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Boston College (neutral) | W | 27.3% | 40.0% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Cincinnati (neutral) | W | 55.6% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 80.0% | 41.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 16.7% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 38.5% | 42.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 42.9% | 46.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 27.3% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 50.0% | 43.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsUSC | L | 41.7% | 42.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 62.5% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 50.0% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsIowa | L | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Utah (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 64.3% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 62.5% | 47.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 46.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 46.2% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMaryland | W | 46.2% | 47.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 52.6% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 41.2% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington | L | 46.2% | 42.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jamal Rule nor without Jamal Rule: Jamal Rule had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.