Nebraska’s third-down conversion rate with Jamal Rule and without Jamal Rule
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nebraska was 8.7 percentage points over with Jamal Rule and 0.9 percentage points under without Jamal Rule in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 51.4% and 46.2%, a difference of 5.2%. Both away games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 night games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 nonconference games were with Jamal Rule.
Jamal Rule, running back: 463 rushing yards, 73 carries and 4 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Jamal Rule is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jamal Rule
+8.7%
without Jamal Rule
−0.9%
0%5%10%15%
plain
51.4%
46.2%
50%60%
The games
with Jamal Rulewithout Jamal Rule
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 64.3% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 62.5% | 47.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 46.7% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 46.2% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 46.2% | 47.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 52.6% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 41.2% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington | L | 46.2% | 42.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.