Nebraska’s points with TJ Lateef and without TJ Lateef
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nebraska was 4.0 points under with TJ Lateef and 2.1 points over without TJ Lateef over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 19.0 and 32.7, a difference of 13.7. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without TJ Lateef.
TJ Lateef, quarterback: 986 passing yards, 134 pass attempts and 82 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with TJ Lateef
−4.0
without TJ Lateef
+2.1
-20020
A −6.1 difference in points over expected with TJ Lateef vs without TJ Lateef is about what you’d expect.
plain
19.0
32.7
204060
A −13.7 difference in points with TJ Lateef vs without TJ Lateef is about what you’d expect.
The games
with TJ Lateefwithout TJ Lateef
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ USC | L | 20 | 20.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Wisconsin | W | 44 | 19.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Iowa | L | 10 | 19.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Boston College (neutral) | W | 20 | 25.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Cincinnati (neutral) | W | 20 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 68 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 38 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 34 | 25.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 6 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 28 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsUSC | L | 17 | 25.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 28 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 10 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsIowa | L | 16 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Utah (neutral) | L | 22 | 22.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 49 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 56 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMaryland | W | 48 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 17 | 23.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 14 | 24.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington | L | 10 | 34.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Houston Christian, North Dakota have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 13 of these 21 games; in the other 8 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with TJ Lateef nor without TJ Lateef: TJ Lateef had no game for the team that season, and sit out.