Nebraska’s points of margin with Jamal Rule and without Jamal Rule
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nebraska was 3.1 points over with Jamal Rule and 4.2 points over without Jamal Rule over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 15.6 and 25.0, a difference of 9.4. Expected was 10.3 points lower with Jamal Rule than without Jamal Rule. Both away games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 night games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 nonconference games were with Jamal Rule.
Jamal Rule, running back: 463 rushing yards, 73 carries and 4 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Jamal Rule is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jamal Rule
+3.1
without Jamal Rule
+4.2
-20020
plain
15.6
25.0
02040
The games
with Jamal Rulewithout Jamal Rule
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ USC | L | -8 | -8.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Wisconsin | W | 19 | 2.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Iowa | L | -3 | -7.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Boston College (neutral) | W | 5 | 4.5 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Cincinnati (neutral) | W | 3 | 3.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 68 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | -3 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 11 | 5.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 3 | 3.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | -18 | 6.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Northwestern | W | 7 | 2.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsUSC | L | -4 | -10.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UCLA | W | 7 | 4.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | -27 | -9.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsIowa | L | -24 | -7.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Utah (neutral) | L | -22 | -14.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 28 | 22.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 49 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Michigan State | W | 18 | 3.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMaryland | W | 25 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | -3 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | -3 | -3.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington | L | -7 | 14.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jamal Rule nor without Jamal Rule: Jamal Rule had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.