Nebraska’s points of margin with Jamal Rule and without Jamal Rule
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nebraska was 3.1 points over with Jamal Rule and 4.2 points over without Jamal Rule in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 15.6 and 25.0, a difference of 9.4. Expected was 10.3 points lower with Jamal Rule than without Jamal Rule. Both away games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 night games were with Jamal Rule. All 3 nonconference games were with Jamal Rule.
Jamal Rule, running back: 463 rushing yards, 73 carries and 4 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Jamal Rule is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jamal Rule
+3.1
without Jamal Rule
+4.2
-20020
plain
15.6
25.0
02040
The games
with Jamal Rulewithout Jamal Rule
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Ohio | W | 28 | 22.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 49 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 18 | 3.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Maryland | W | 25 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | -3 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | -3 | -3.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington | L | -7 | 14.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.