Navy’s third-down conversion rate with Jackson Gutierrez and without Jackson Gutierrez
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Navy was 0.0 percentage points over with Jackson Gutierrez and 2.5 percentage points over without Jackson Gutierrez over its last 25 games, 7 games against 16. The plain averages are 39.3% and 47.8%, a difference of 8.4%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Jackson Gutierrez. Both games while ranked were without Jackson Gutierrez. Both bowl and playoff games were without Jackson Gutierrez.
Jackson Gutierrez, quarterback: 740 passing yards, 74 pass attempts and 37 completions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jackson Gutierrez vs without Jackson Gutierrez is about what you’d expect.
A −8.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jackson Gutierrez vs without Jackson Gutierrez is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Tulane | L | 9.1% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ East Carolina | W | 47.1% | 40.2% | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Army (neutral) | W | 53.8% | 38.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | W | 30.8% | 34.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs VMI | W | 76.9% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 44.4% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 61.5% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Rice | W | 58.3% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 45.5% | 50.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 27.3% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 54.5% | 47.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | 54.5% | 45.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 27.3% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 35.7% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @ Memphis | W | 53.3% | 41.8% | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsArmy (neutral) | W | 61.1% | 43.8% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Cincinnati (neutral) | W | 60.0% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTowson | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 27.3% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @UAB | L | 46.7% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 9.1% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTulsa | W | 72.7% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 44.4% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNorth Texas | L | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNotre Dame (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 37.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- VMI, Towson have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.