Navy’s third-down conversion rate with Braxton Woodson and without Braxton Woodson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Navy was 3.5 percentage points under with Braxton Woodson and 2.9 percentage points over without Braxton Woodson over its last 25 games, 4 games against 19. The plain averages are 46.6% and 45.0%, a difference of 1.6%. Expected was 2.5 percentage points lower with Braxton Woodson than without Braxton Woodson. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Braxton Woodson. Both bowl and playoff games were without Braxton Woodson.
Braxton Woodson, quarterback: 440 passing yards, 73 pass attempts and 34 completions in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Braxton Woodson vs without Braxton Woodson is about what you’d expect.
A +1.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Braxton Woodson vs without Braxton Woodson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Tulane | L | 9.1% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ East Carolina | W | 47.1% | 40.2% | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Army (neutral) | W | 53.8% | 38.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | W | 30.8% | 34.4% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs VMI | W | 76.9% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 44.4% | 47.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 61.5% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Rice | W | 58.3% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 45.5% | 50.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 27.3% | 44.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 54.5% | 47.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | 54.5% | 45.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 27.3% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 35.7% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @ Memphis | W | 53.3% | 41.8% | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsArmy (neutral) | W | 61.1% | 43.8% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Cincinnati (neutral) | W | 60.0% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTowson | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 27.3% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @UAB | L | 46.7% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 9.1% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTulsa | W | 72.7% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 44.4% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNorth Texas | L | 41.7% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNotre Dame (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 37.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- VMI, Towson have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.