Navy’s points of margin with Jackson Gutierrez and without Jackson Gutierrez
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Navy was 1.4 points under with Jackson Gutierrez and 0.1 points over without Jackson Gutierrez over its last 25 games, 7 games against 16. The plain averages are -6.4 and 6.1, a difference of 12.5. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Jackson Gutierrez. Both games while ranked were without Jackson Gutierrez. Both bowl and playoff games were without Jackson Gutierrez.
Jackson Gutierrez, quarterback: 740 passing yards, 74 pass attempts and 37 completions in 18 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −1.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Jackson Gutierrez vs without Jackson Gutierrez is about what you’d expect.
A −12.5 difference in points of margin with Jackson Gutierrez vs without Jackson Gutierrez is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jackson Gutierrez and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Tulane | L | -35 | 3.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ East Carolina | W | 14 | 7.3 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Army (neutral) | W | 18 | -3.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Oklahoma (neutral) | W | 1 | -5.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs VMI | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 14 | 20.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tulsa | W | 19 | 10.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Rice | W | 8 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 3 | 12.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 1 | 6.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 10 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ North Texas | L | -14 | -11.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | -39 | -26.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 3 | -9.9 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | @ Memphis | W | 11 | -6.1 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsArmy (neutral) | W | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Cincinnati (neutral) | W | 22 | -6.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTowson | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | -8 | 4.5 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @UAB | L | -4 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Air Force | L | -5 | -2.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTulsa | W | 8 | -0.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | -4 | -10.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsNorth Texas | L | -10 | -1.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNotre Dame (neutral) | L | -22 | -29.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- VMI, Towson have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.