Missouri’s third-down conversion rate with Xai'Shaun Edwards and since Xai'Shaun Edwards’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri was 0.3 percentage points under with Xai'Shaun Edwards and 4.6 percentage points over since Xai'Shaun Edwards’ last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.8% and 46.2%, a difference of 4.4%. All 4 home games were with Xai'Shaun Edwards. All 5 day games were with Xai'Shaun Edwards. All 3 ranked opponents were with Xai'Shaun Edwards.
Xai'Shaun Edwards, running back: 146 rushing yards, 39 carries and 2 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Xai'Shaun Edwards’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Xai'Shaun Edwards
−0.3%
since Xai'Shaun Edwards’ last game
+4.6%
-20%0%
plain
41.8%
46.2%
20%40%60%
The games
with Xai'Shaun Edwardssince Xai'Shaun Edwards’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ South Carolina | L | 11.1% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | W | 61.1% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arkansas | W | 40.0% | 39.5% | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Iowa (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 40.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsCCentral Arkansas | W | 69.2% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 52.6% | 42.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 69.2% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 53.8% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 66.7% | 50.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 9.1% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 47.1% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 31.3% | 45.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 38.5% | 30.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMississippi State | W | 50.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 20.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Arkansas | W | 40.0% | 45.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Virginia (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @Kansas | W | 43.8% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 18.2% | 46.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Mississippi State | L | 43.8% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 53.8% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 37.5% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 35.3% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 46.2% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Xai'Shaun Edwards nor since Xai'Shaun Edwards’ last game: Xai'Shaun Edwards had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.