Missouri’s third-down conversion rate with Matt Zollers and without Matt Zollers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri was 2.1 percentage points under with Matt Zollers and 1.8 percentage points over without Matt Zollers over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 36.2% and 45.1%, a difference of 8.9%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Matt Zollers.
Matt Zollers, quarterback: 590 passing yards, 101 pass attempts and 55 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Matt Zollers
−2.1%
without Matt Zollers
+1.8%
-20%0%20%
A −3.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Matt Zollers vs without Matt Zollers is about what you’d expect.
plain
36.2%
45.1%
20%40%60%
A −8.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Matt Zollers vs without Matt Zollers is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Matt Zollerswithout Matt Zollers
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ South Carolina | L | 11.1% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | W | 61.1% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arkansas | W | 40.0% | 39.5% | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Iowa (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 40.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsCCentral Arkansas | W | 69.2% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 52.6% | 42.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 69.2% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 53.8% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 66.7% | 50.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 9.1% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 47.1% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 31.3% | 45.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 38.5% | 30.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMississippi State | W | 50.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 20.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Arkansas | W | 40.0% | 45.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Virginia (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @Kansas | W | 43.8% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 18.2% | 46.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Mississippi State | L | 43.8% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 53.8% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 37.5% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 35.3% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 46.2% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Central Arkansas, Arkansas-Pine Bluff have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 11 of these 21 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Matt Zollers nor without Matt Zollers: Matt Zollers had no game for the team that season, and sit out.