Missouri’s third-down conversion rate with Donovan Olugbode and without Donovan Olugbode
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri was 0.0 percentage points over with Donovan Olugbode and 2.4 percentage points over without Donovan Olugbode in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.0% and 37.5%, a difference of 5.5%. All 4 away games were with Donovan Olugbode. All 3 night games were with Donovan Olugbode. All 3 ranked opponents were with Donovan Olugbode.
Donovan Olugbode, receiver: 593 receiving yards, 41 receptions and 7 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Donovan Olugbode is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Donovan Olugbode
+0.0%
without Donovan Olugbode
+2.4%
-20%0%
plain
43.0%
37.5%
20%40%60%
The games
with Donovan Olugbodewithout Donovan Olugbode
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Kansas | W | 43.8% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 18.2% | 46.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 43.8% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 53.8% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 37.5% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 35.3% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 46.2% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.