Missouri’s third-down conversion rate with Ahmad Hardy and without Ahmad Hardy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri was 1.5 percentage points over with Ahmad Hardy and 0.3 percentage points under without Ahmad Hardy over its last 25 games, 13 games against 6. The plain averages are 44.2% and 41.8%, a difference of 2.4%. All 4 games while unranked were with Ahmad Hardy. All 3 games after a bye were with Ahmad Hardy.
Ahmad Hardy, running back: 1,691 rushing yards, 259 carries and 6 receptions in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Ahmad Hardy
+1.5%
without Ahmad Hardy
−0.3%
-20%0%20%
A +1.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ahmad Hardy vs without Ahmad Hardy is about what you’d expect.
plain
44.2%
41.8%
20%40%60%
A +2.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ahmad Hardy vs without Ahmad Hardy is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Ahmad Hardywithout Ahmad Hardy
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ South Carolina | L | 11.1% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | W | 61.1% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arkansas | W | 40.0% | 39.5% | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Iowa (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 40.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsCCentral Arkansas | W | 69.2% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 52.6% | 42.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 69.2% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 53.8% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 66.7% | 50.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 9.1% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 47.1% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 31.3% | 45.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 38.5% | 30.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMississippi State | W | 50.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 20.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Arkansas | W | 40.0% | 45.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Virginia (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @Kansas | W | 43.8% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 18.2% | 46.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Mississippi State | L | 43.8% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 53.8% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 37.5% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 35.3% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 46.2% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Central Arkansas, Arkansas-Pine Bluff have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 11 of these 21 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Ahmad Hardy nor without Ahmad Hardy: Ahmad Hardy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.